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Федеральный исследовательский центр 
«Красноярский научный центр
Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук»

Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth

2019 год

Авторы
Martinez-Vilalta, J.
Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Cerdanyola Del Valles 08193, Spain.
CREAF, Campus UAB, Cerdanyola Del Valles 08193, Spain.
Wyckoff, J.
Univ Minnesota, 600 East 4th St, Morris, MN 56267 USA.
Villalba, A. R.
CCT CONICET Mendoza, Lab Dendrocronol & Hist Ambiental, Inst Argentino Nivol Glaciol & Ciencias Ambiental, Ave Ruiz Leal S-N,Parque Gen San Martin, RA-5500 Mendoza, Argentina.
Stan, D. B.
No Arizona Univ, Dept Geog Planning & Recreat, POB 15016, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA.
Sanguesa-Barreda, J. M.
CSIC, IPE, Ave Montanana 1005, Zaragoza 50192, Spain.
Papadopoulos, A. M.
Technol Educ Inst TEI Stereas Elladas, Dept Forestry & Nat Environm Management, Ag Georgiou 1, Karpenissi 36100, Greece.
Metsaranta, W.
Nat Resources Canada, Northern Forestry Ctr, Canadian Forest Serv, 5320-122nd St, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada.
Makinen, I.
Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, Viikinkaari 4, Helsinki 00790, Finland.
Lombardi, H.
Mediterranean Univ Reggio Calabria, Dept Agr Sci, I-89060 Reggio Di Calabria, Italy.
Kitzberger, T.
Consejo Nacl Invest Cient & Tecn, Inst Invest Biodiversidad & Medio Ambiente INIBOM, Quintral 1250, RA-8400 San Carlos De Bariloche, Rio Negro, Argentina.
Univ Nacl Comahue, Dept Ecol, Quintral S-N, RA-8400 San Carlos De Bariloche, Rio Negro, Argentina.
Kharuk, T.
Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Div, Sukachev Inst Forest, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia.
Kane, V. I.
Humboldt State Univ, Dept Forestry & Wildland Resources, 1 Harpst St, Arcata, CA 95521 USA.
Janda, J. M.
Czech Univ Life Sci, Fac Forestry & Wood Sci, Kamycka 961-129, Prague 16521 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic.
Hultine, P.
Desert Bot Garden, Dept Res Conservat & Collect, 1201 N Galvin Pkwy, Phoenix, AZ USA.
Heres, K. R.
CSIC, Dept Biogeog & Global Change, Natl Museum Nat Hist MNCN, C Serrano 115Bis, Madrid 28006, Spain.
CREAF, Campus UAB, Cerdanyola Del Valles 08193, Spain.
Hartmann, A. M.
Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, Hans Knoll Str 10, D-07745 Jena, Germany.
Haavik, H.
Univ Kansas, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, 1450 Jayhawk Blvd, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA.
Univ Arkansas, Dept Entomol, Fayetteville, AR 72701 USA.
Gillner, L. J.
TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Vegetat Tech & Pflanzenverwendung, Inst Landschaftsarchitektur & Umweltplanung, D-10623 Berlin, Germany.
Tech Univ Dresden, Inst Forest Bot & Forest Zool, D-01062 Dresden, Germany.
Gea-Izquierdo, S.
Inst Nacl Invest & Tecnol Agr & Alimentaria INIA, Ctr Invest Forestal CIFOR, Carretera La Coruna Km 7-5, Madrid 28040, Spain.
Das, H.
US Geol Survey, Western Ecol Res Ctr, 47050 Generals Highway, Three Rivers, CA 93271 USA.
Cufar, A. J.
Univ Ljubljana, Biotech Fac, Jamnikarjeva 101, Ljubljana 1000, Slovenia.
Coyea, K.
Univ Laval, Dept Sci Bois & Foret, Ctr Forest Res, Fac Foresterie Geog & Geomat, 2405 Rue Terrasse, Quebec City, PQ G1V 0A6, Canada.
Camarero, P.
CSIC, IPE, Ave Montanana 1005, Zaragoza 50192, Spain.
Bugmann, M.
ETH, Forest Ecol, Dept Environm Syst Sci, Inst Terr Ecosyst, Univ Str 22, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
Bigler, H.
ETH, Forest Ecol, Dept Environm Syst Sci, Inst Terr Ecosyst, Univ Str 22, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
Jansen, S.
Univ Ulm, Inst Systemat Bot & Ecol, Albert Einstein Allee 11, D-89081 Ulm, Germany.
Cailleret, M.
ETH, Forest Ecol, Dept Environm Syst Sci, Inst Terr Ecosyst, Univ Str 22, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter- annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last similar to 20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.


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